Modelling a comprehensive assessment of the level of innovation security

Abstract

The assessment of the level of innovation security is an important task to ensure socio- economic or innovative development and support scientific and technological progress. At the same time, in the modern scientific world, there are not enough methods that allow carrying out an accurate diagnosis of innovation security. It is relevant to consider in such diagnostics the system of external and internal factors that stimulate, or on the contrary, hinder innovative development. An important issue is to improve the tools, methods and stages of such an assessment, taking into account the present.The study used a system of methods and tools that allowed solving the problems of the article: mathe-matical modelling, correlation and regression analysis, modified principal component, Holt’s adaptive mod-el, abstraction, synthesis, deduction and induction. The database used for modelling the integrated assess-ment of innovation security is an official statistical sources, which reflect the results of innovation activity.It has been proved that innovation activity plays an important role both in the effective functioning of individual sectors of the economy and in the social development of the country as a whole. Consequently, such activity requires constant monitoring and evaluation. The methodology of diagnostics of the level of innovation security and its forecast is proposed.The obtained levels of innovation security, as well as the forecast, indicate the increased need to form a new type of state policy, which will completely restart innovation activity. The proposed methodology will be useful for the interested market players, which is important to diagnose the current state of innovation activity in time, as well as to develop a policy for innovative development of the country for the future.